Articles & Analysis
Week of 2026-W09
Business Post Weekly Intelligence Briefing
Week of 26 February – 4 March 2026: Deals, Distress & the Data Behind the Headlines
Source: ARTICLES | Period: 2026-02-26 to 2026-03-04
War, Deals & the Data Behind the Headlines: 196 Stories That Shaped Irish Business This Week
The week of 26 February opened with US and Israeli strikes on Iran — and by Wednesday, Ireland's aviation leasing sector, its banks, its housebuilders, and its corporate tax base were all recalibrating. Against that geopolitical backdrop, Avolon Aviation raised €361m in Japan's Samurai loan market, AIB declared its ambition to become Europe's best bank, and Novo Nordisk confirmed a €432m Athlone investment. The week's 196 articles, written by 20 reporters, tell a story of Irish business navigating a world that changed on Saturday morning.
By the Numbers
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Business Post articles published | 196 | Weekly total |
| Avolon Samurai loan facility raised | €361m ($430m) | Record: largest debut Samurai by European issuer |
| Novo Nordisk Athlone investment | €432m | Wegovy manufacturing, FDI confirmed |
| AIB after-tax profit 2025 | €2.1bn | RoTE 25%, targeting 20%+ in 2026 |
| Cairn Homes 2026 revenue forecast | €1.05–1.08bn | PRS investor demand at 5-year high |
| Irish unemployment rate (Feb 2026) | 4.6% | Up from 4.4% in Feb 2025 |
| Irish inflation (Feb 2026) | 2.4% | Slight fall from 2.5% in Jan |
| Aryzta full-year EBITDA | €306.9m | Margin 13.8%, free cash flow €120m |
The Week's Top Stories: Deals, Distress and the Iran Effect
The Business Post published 196 articles across the week of 26 February to 4 March 2026, with 20 reporters contributing. The dominant theme was the Iran conflict and its economic consequences — but beneath that macro story, a pattern of Irish corporate activity emerged: banks hunting acquisitions, housebuilders reporting record investor demand, and aviation finance firms diversifying their capital base. The week's most-read beats were Markets (led by Fionn Thompson and Chloe Farrell), Companies (Ellie Donnelly), Banking (Donal MacNamee), and Legal (Eoin O'Hare).
Top Stories This Week — Ranked by Significance
| Story | Entity | Key Figure | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avolon raises €361m Samurai loan | Avolon Aviation | €361m / $1.9bn raised YTD | Record European debut Samurai |
| AIB targets 'best bank in Europe' | AIB Group | €2.1bn profit, 25% RoTE | M&A hunt in wealth management |
| Novo Nordisk €432m Athlone investment | Novo Nordisk / IDA Ireland | €432m Wegovy manufacturing | Major pharma FDI confirmed |
| Cairn Homes: PRS investor surge | Cairn Homes | €1.05–1.08bn 2026 forecast | 5-year high investor demand |
| Iran war hits Irish aviation firms | Ryanair, Avolon, leasing sector | $300bn Irish leasing assets at risk | Gulf airline customers disrupted |
| Zeus acquires Superpedestrian Europe | Zeus / Superpedestrian | €52m enterprise value, 100 jobs | Irish micromobility scale-up |
| Aryzta full-year EBITDA €306m | Aryzta | Revenue €2.22bn, margin 13.8% | Resilient amid consumer softness |
| Kavanagh firm in €1.8m Meath land dispute | Close Line / Greg Kavanagh | €1.8m purchase price disputed | Active High Court litigation |
| Corporate tax falls year-on-year | Dept of Finance / Exchequer | Feb 2026 CT down vs Feb 2025 | Post-Apple windfall normalisation |
| Liam Mounsey: €94.2m housing windfall | Golden Port Estates / Northport | €20.1m operating profit, Dublin 12 | Residential developer scaling |
Thematic Breakdown: How the Week's Coverage Divided
Financial Performance: Irish Companies Reporting This Week
| Company | Revenue / Key Metric | Profit / EBITDA | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Group | €6.76bn revenue (2025) | €659m profit from ops | Down from €6.9bn / €673m prior year |
| Aryzta | €2.22bn revenue (2025) | €306.9m EBITDA, 13.8% margin | Free cash flow €120m, growth in 2026 |
| Origin Enterprises | Market cap €478.7m | Op profit +2.4% to €17.4m | Modest but positive growth |
| Cairn Homes | €1.05–1.08bn forecast 2026 | Op profit €180–185m forecast | Build cost inflation only 1% vs 2% industry |
| AIB Group | Strong deposit / loan growth | €2.1bn after-tax profit 2025 | RoTE 25%, targeting 20%+ in 2026 |
| Sony Ireland (subsidiary) | €31.55m Irish revenue | €1.67m pre-tax profit (down 42%) | PlayStation sales waning, competition rising |
| Glanbia | Global food group | CFO awarded €368k retention shares | Proxy advisers ISS & Glass Lewis opposed |
What the Official Records Reveal Beyond the Headlines
Business Post articles are the starting point. But the official data trail — CRO filings, court records, property registers — adds layers that no single article can capture. This week, three themes emerge from the cross-referencing: a property developer whose corporate network is more complex than the court case suggests; an Irish bank whose M&A ambitions are backed by genuine financial firepower; and a pharma investment that confirms Ireland's structural advantage in life sciences. The Iran conflict, meanwhile, is the invisible hand behind almost every other story.
The Radar: Three Signals Worth Watching
Deep Dives: The Stories That Reward Closer Reading
Two entities this week earned a deeper look: AIB, whose ambition to become Europe's best bank is backed by genuine financial firepower but faces structural questions about wealth management scale; and the Greg Kavanagh property network, where a €1.8m Meath court case opens a window onto a web of nine CRO-registered companies. Both stories are richer than the headlines suggest.
AIB Group — Europe's Best Bank, or Ireland's Most Ambitious?
AIB is Ireland's largest bank by assets and, after a decade of post-crisis restructuring, is now generating profits that would have seemed implausible in 2012. CEO Colin Hunt — now the highest-paid bank CEO in Ireland — declared this week that AIB's ambition is to become the best bank in Europe. The Business Post's Donal MacNamee asked the right question: is that a huge ask?
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| After-tax profit | €2.1bn | Not disclosed | Strong |
| Return on tangible equity | 25% | ~20% | Up |
| 2026 RoTE target | 20%+ | — | Guidance |
| Excess capital | Not stated | — | M&A firepower |
| Wealth management platforms | Goodbody + AIB Life | — | Roll-up strategy |
| Mortgage market share | Growing | — | Loan growth |
The question for 2026: will AIB announce a wealth management acquisition before Bank of Ireland does, and will the price paid justify the ambition?
Greg Kavanagh / Close Line — A €1.8m Court Case and a Nine-Company Network
Business Post legal reporter Eoin O'Hare reported that a firm linked to property developer Greg Kavanagh tried to "string along" the sellers of a 3.81-acre site in Longwood, Co Meath, that it had agreed to buy for €1.8m. The defendant is Close Line. CRO records reveal the full picture.
| Company | CRO Number | Status | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Line Uni Limited | 743094 | Normal | Named in court case |
| Close Line Lane Limited | 742371 | Normal | Related entity |
| Kilternan Homes Limited | 732077 | Normal | Residential development |
| Beakonshaw Close Limited | 716104 | Normal | Beakonshaw group |
| Beakonshaw Midco Limited | 726477 | Normal | Beakonshaw group |
| Beakonshaw Treasury & Finance | 713161 | Normal | Beakonshaw group |
The question for 2026: will the High Court find against Close Line, and if so, what are the implications for the other entities in the Kavanagh network?
Key People This Period
| Name | Role | Notable Activity | Connections |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Hunt | CEO, AIB | Declared ambition to be Europe's best bank; highest-paid bank CEO in Ireland | AIB analysis, M&A article |
| Myles O'Grady | CEO, Bank of Ireland | Left door open to M&A; €530m excess capital, 16% RoTE target 2028 | Bank of Ireland M&A article |
| Greg Kavanagh | Property Developer / Director | Close Line in High Court over €1.8m Meath land deal; directs 9+ CRO companies | Close Line Uni, Kilternan Homes |
| Michael Lohan | CEO, IDA Ireland | Championed Novo Nordisk €432m Athlone investment; quoted on Sony Ireland | Novo Nordisk article |
| Edmond Scanlon | CEO, Kerry Group | Received €1.75m in shares; revenues €6.76bn, down from €6.9bn | Kerry Group shares article |
| Sean Coyle | CEO, Origin Enterprises | Received €518k in shares; operating profit up 2.4% to €17.4m | Origin Enterprises article |
| Damian Young | CEO, Zeus | Acquired Superpedestrian Europe for €52m EV; creating 100 Irish jobs | Zeus deal article |
| Neil O'Keefe | New CEO, Greenman Investments | Succeeds co-founder John Wilkinson; €1.3bn AUM across Germany, Poland, France | Greenman CEO article |
One to Watch: Liam Mounsey / Golden Port Estates
Liam Mounsey — Golden Port Estates Limited
| Metric | 2024 | 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Golden Port Estates) | €94.2m | N/A | Final phase of 393-home project |
| Operating profit | €20.1m | N/A | 21.3% margin |
| After-tax profit | €15.1m | N/A | Strong conversion |
| Northport Investments revenue | €100m combined | N/A | Includes shipping business |
| Northport after-tax profit | €14.4m | N/A | Diversified income |
Liam Mounsey's Golden Port Estates Limited completed the final phase of a 393-home project on the Naas Road in Dublin 12 in 2024, booking €94.2m in sales and a €20.1m operating profit. The parent company, Northport Investments Limited (in which Mounsey holds a 94% stake), also controls a shipping business that generated €5.7m in revenue in 2024 — an unusual combination for an Irish property developer.
Why it matters: Mounsey's group was behind the proposed sale of 115 homes in Maynooth to Round Hill Capital in 2021 — a deal that caused political controversy and led to new government rules on bulk sales. That deal was never completed; the homes were sold to owner-occupiers. The 2024 accounts show a developer who has navigated the post-controversy environment successfully, with further developments under construction in Celbridge (Kilwoghan Woods) and Kilcock (Bawnogue Park). The number that matters: €100m in combined group revenue from a developer who operates largely below the radar of mainstream business coverage.
Watch for: Mounsey's next bulk sale announcement — and whether the government's evolving stance on PRS investment changes his exit strategy for future schemes.
The Broader Picture: Courts, Property & the Week Ahead
The Irish Courts
The High Court delivered eight judgments in the week of 26 February to 4 March 2026. The most significant for business readers was the X Internet Unlimited Company (X, formerly Twitter) challenge to Comisiún na Meán, Ireland's media regulator — a case that will define the boundaries of Irish digital regulation and has implications for every tech platform with an Irish base. The Friends of the Irish Environment challenge to Uisce Éireann signals continued legal pressure on infrastructure delivery, directly relevant to the government's Critical Infrastructure Bill announced this week.
| Citation | Parties | Subject | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| [2026] IEHC 127 | X Internet Unlimited Company v Comisiún na Meán | Digital media regulation | Defines scope of Irish media regulator's power over global tech platforms |
| [2026] IEHC 106 | Friends of the Irish Environment v Uisce Éireann & Ors | Water infrastructure / environmental | Legal challenge to water utility; relevant to Critical Infrastructure Bill |
| [2026] IEHC 124 | Verbenagrove Limited v Evans and Anor | Commercial property dispute | High Court property litigation; Simons J. |
| [2026] IEHC 99 | Walsh v Juniper Orthodontics Limited | Commercial / healthcare | Business litigation in healthcare services sector |
Property Markets & Plans
The property register recorded 593 transactions in the week of 26 February to 4 March 2026, with an average price of €325,863 and a median of €295,154 — the median sitting comfortably above the €295,000 mark that has become a benchmark for Dublin commuter belt pricing. The week's most notable commercial transactions were a Baggot Street mixed-use building sold for €1.35m at a 6.4% net initial yield, and a Georgian aparthotel at 38-39 Gardiner Street Upper, Dublin 1, launched at €5.25m. Both reflect sustained investor appetite for income-generating Dublin assets despite the geopolitical uncertainty.
| Property | Price | Type | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baggot Street, Dublin 2 (mixed-use) | €1.35m | Commercial | 6.4% net initial yield; private Irish investor |
| 38-39 Gardiner Street Upper, Dublin 1 (aparthotel) | €5.25m (guide) | Hospitality / residential | 22 units; going concern or vacant possession |
| Wilton Park, Dublin 2 (fitness anchor) | Lease (not disclosed) | Commercial / wellness | Perpetua Fitness anchors Iput Real Estate scheme |
| Week total (all residential & commercial) | Avg €325,863 | Mixed | 593 transactions; median €295,154 |
The Week Ahead
The single most important takeaway from this week is that Ireland's economic story is now inseparable from the geopolitical story. The Iran conflict — which began on Saturday 28 February — has already disrupted aviation routes, pushed oil prices above $85, rattled the Iseq, and raised inflation expectations. For Irish business, the immediate risks are concentrated in aviation leasing (Gulf airline customers), energy costs (oil and gas), and corporate tax (multinationals reassessing investment decisions). The medium-term risk is that a prolonged conflict accelerates the structural shift away from Gulf-dependent supply chains — which could, paradoxically, benefit Ireland's neutral positioning.
On the domestic front, the March exchequer returns will be the first real test of whether Ireland's corporate tax base is normalising or declining. AIB and Bank of Ireland's M&A signals suggest the banking sector is preparing for a period of consolidation. And the Greg Kavanagh court case — small in absolute terms — is a reminder that Ireland's property development sector still carries structural risks from the last cycle.
What to Watch: (1) March exchequer returns — the real test of corporate tax normalisation. (2) AIB or Bank of Ireland M&A announcement in wealth management. (3) An Bord Pleanála decision on the Goodman / BP solar appeal. (4) Cairn Homes' Cork joint venture announcement with CastleGate. (5) Any CRO filings showing new SPV formations by aircraft lessors managing Gulf exposure.