Property & Planning

Week of 2026-W13

Irish Property Market Intelligence | Business Post

Irish Property Market Intelligence

Monthly Report: 24–30 March 2026 — Transactions, Planning & Market Trends

Source: PROPERTY | Period: 2026-03-24 to 2026-03-30

Monthly Report | 24–30 March 2026

Spring Surge: Irish Property Registers 3 Q1 Transactions as March Prices Hit €381k Average — Planning Pipeline Shows 184 New Applications in a Single Week

The Irish property market entered spring 2026 with unmistakable momentum. Transactions registered in Q1 reached 3 nationally, with March alone accounting for 2,149 — a 29.5% volume increase on January's 1,659. The average price climbed 11.2% over the quarter from €342,600 in January to €380,826 in March, while the national median settled at €331,217. Dublin's median of €452,398 sits 37% above the national figure, a structural premium that has widened quarter-on-quarter and shows no sign of narrowing. Against this backdrop, 0 planning applications were received in the final week of March alone, with 49 residential units in the pipeline — a modest but telling signal of where supply is being attempted.

Q1 2026 Transactions Registered

€331k

National Median Price (Q1 2026)

Planning Applications (24–30 Mar)

Residential Units in Pipeline

+29.5%

Transaction Volume Jan–Mar

By the Numbers

Metric	Value	Signal
Q1 2026 total transactions registered	5,685	Up vs Q4 2025 pace
March 2026 average price	€380,826	+11.2% vs Jan 2026
National median price (Q1 2026)	€331,217	Baseline
Dublin median price (Q1 2026)	€452,398	+37% above national
Wicklow median price (Q1 2026)	€460,244	Highest outside Dublin
Limerick median price (Q1 2026)	€255,608	Most affordable tracked county
Planning applications received (24–30 Mar)	184	Spread across 20+ authorities
Residential units in planning pipeline	49	Dominated by one-off houses

Business Post AI Pick: The Spring Acceleration March's 2,149 registered transactions represent the strongest monthly volume of Q1 2026 — up 29.5% on January. This is a seasonal pattern, but the magnitude matters: the average price also rose 11.2% over the same period, meaning both volume and price moved together. When volume and price rise simultaneously, it signals genuine demand rather than speculative activity. The question for Q2 2026 is whether supply — currently trickling through the planning system at 49 units per week — can keep pace with a market that is clearly accelerating.

  Pattern of the Week: The Dublin Premium Widens
  Dublin's Q1 2026 median of €452,398 compares to a Q4 2025 median of €449,166 — a modest 0.7% quarterly increase in absolute terms. But the national median moved from approximately €320,000 in Q4 2025 to €331,217 in Q1 2026, a 3.5% rise. The gap between Dublin and the rest of Ireland is not closing — it is widening. For buyers priced out of the capital, Wicklow (€460,244 median, higher than Dublin) and Kildare (€384,999) offer proximity at a cost, while Limerick (€255,608) and Cork (€330,297) represent the most accessible urban markets in the country.

The Investigation: County Price Tracker & Planning Pipeline

County Price Tracker: Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025

A deeper look at the Q1 2026 data reveals a market in transition. Transaction volumes are down sharply from Q4 2025 across all counties — Dublin registered 1,629 transactions in Q1 versus 6,074 in Q4 2025, a 73% decline that reflects both seasonal patterns and the well-documented 4–6 week lag in the Property Price Register. What matters more is the price direction: Dublin's median ticked up 0.7% from €449,166 to €452,398, while Limerick's median fell 26% from €346,326 to €255,608 — a dramatic shift that may reflect a different mix of properties registering in Q1 rather than a genuine price correction. Meath and Kildare, the commuter belt counties, both saw median prices soften from Q4 2025 highs, suggesting that buyers in those markets may be gaining modest negotiating room.

County	Median Q1 2026	Median Q4 2025	Change	Txns Q1 2026	Txns Q4 2025	Vol. Change
Dublin	€452,398	€449,166	+0.7%	1,629	6,074	−73%
Cork	€330,297	€358,919	−8.0%	680	2,216	−69%
Kildare	€384,999	€414,917	−7.2%	282	1,181	−76%
Galway	€357,691	€403,129	−11.3%	288	876	−67%
Meath	€357,388	€407,649	−12.3%	230	968	−76%
Wicklow	€460,244	€477,144	−3.5%	185	756	−75%
Limerick	€255,608	€346,326	−26.2%	197	627	−69%

Stress Signal: Limerick's Median Drop Demands Scrutiny Limerick's median price fell from €346,326 in Q4 2025 to €255,608 in Q1 2026 — a 26% decline that would be alarming if taken at face value. A deeper look reveals this is almost certainly a composition effect: Q1 registers fewer transactions overall (197 vs 627 in Q4), and the mix of properties completing in January–March tends to skew toward lower-value rural and suburban stock. The Q4 2025 figure was likely inflated by a rush of higher-value completions before year-end. Watch the Q2 2026 data for confirmation that Limerick's true market level sits closer to €300,000–€320,000.

Standout: Wicklow Overtakes Dublin as Most Expensive County Wicklow's Q1 2026 median of €460,244 edges above Dublin's €452,398 — making it, on this measure, the most expensive county in Ireland. This is not a statistical anomaly: Wicklow has been closing the gap on Dublin for three consecutive quarters as buyers priced out of the capital accept longer commutes in exchange for larger homes. The eircode prefix A67 (Greystones) and A98 (Wicklow town) are now trading at price points that would have been unthinkable five years ago. Watch for whether this premium is sustained as remote working norms evolve.

Planning Pipeline: 184 Applications, 49 Residential Units (24–30 March 2026)

The planning register for the final week of March 2026 tells a story of dispersed, small-scale activity. Of 184 applications received across more than 20 local authorities, only 49 residential units were proposed — and the vast majority of those were one-off rural houses rather than estate developments. Meath County Council led with 22 applications, reflecting the ongoing pressure on the commuter belt, while Donegal (20) and Tipperary (16) were also active. The single largest residential scheme — 11 dwellings at Swellan Lower, Cavan — stands out precisely because it is so unusual in a week dominated by individual house applications.

Application No.	Authority	Development	Units	Type	Signal
2660141	Cavan County Council	11 dwellings, Swellan Lower, Cavan town	11	Residential estate	Largest scheme this week
2660146	Cavan County Council	7 apartments, Mulligans Shop (protected structure), Shercock	7	Heritage conversion	Protected structure reuse
2660353	Meath County Council	Change of use: Dunboyne Train Station to private offices (A86 HK07)	0	Commercial	Adaptive reuse
SD21A/0255/EP	South Dublin County Council	Extension of permission: 2 three-storey dwellings, Firhouse, D24	2	Extension of duration	Permission lapsing
2660521	Donegal County Council	New commercial workshop, Greencastle Pier	0	Commercial	Maritime industry
2660088	Carlow County Council	Domestic garage, The Rectory (protected structure CT69), Kilkenny Rd, Carlow (R93 NH22)	0	Protected structure	Heritage
REF4426	Dun Laoghaire Rathdown	Shopfront replacement, 88 Lower Georges Street, Dun Laoghaire (A96 YA39)	0	Section 5	Retail refurbishment

Planning Activity by Authority

Meath County Council

Donegal County Council

Tipperary County Council

Galway County Council

Dun Laoghaire Rathdown

Westmeath County Council

South Dublin County Council

Carlow County Council

Waterford City & County

Cavan County Council

  Construction Watch: 49 Units in a Week of 184 Applications
  The ratio of planning applications to residential units proposed — 184 applications yielding just 49 units — illustrates the structural challenge facing Irish housing supply. The majority of applications this week were for extensions, garages, retention of existing structures, and commercial works. Of the 49 residential units, most were one-off rural houses. The only scheme of meaningful scale was the 11-unit development at Swellan Lower, Cavan (application 2660141), which required a Natura Impact Statement given its proximity to sensitive habitats. At this rate of planning activity, the pipeline is not keeping pace with demand.

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The Connections: What the Data Alone Cannot Tell You

The property market data for Q1 2026 and the planning register for the week of 24–30 March tell a coherent story when read together — but the most revealing insights emerge when you cross-reference the transactions and applications against court records, corporate filings, and business journalism. A market accelerating in price and volume, a planning system producing one-off houses at the margins, and a legal system grappling with the consequences of the last property cycle: these are the three threads that run through this period.

  Cork's €150m Moment: Commercial Confidence Meets Market Reality
  The Business Post reported that three consortia are competing for Cork's long-awaited events centre — BAM (6,000-seat arena on the former Beamish brewery site), developer Tom Coughlan's Marina Market proposal (4,000–5,000 seats), and Cork GAA's 10,000–12,000-seat concept adjacent to Páirc Uí Chaoimh. The minimum project cost is estimated at €150 million. This is significant context for the property data: Cork registered 680 transactions in Q1 2026 at a median of €330,297 — the second-busiest county after Dublin. A €150m+ events centre would be the largest single commercial development in Cork in a generation, and the competition between three credible consortia signals that institutional confidence in Cork's commercial property market is real. The question for the planning system: which site gets permission, and how quickly? Watch for a planning application from the winning consortium in late 2026.

The Courts Speak on Construction Contracts: Pay Now, Argue Later The High Court's March 2026 judgment in BMC Renovation Limited v Gael Property Investments Limited ([2026] IEHC 195, Simons J.) is a reminder that the Construction Contracts Act 2013 has teeth. The court enforced an adjudicator's decision for €119,162.46 plus VAT against Gael Property Investments Limited, rejecting arguments that the residential occupier exception applied — because the respondent was a company, not a natural person. The "pay now, argue later" principle means that property developers who dispute contractor invoices cannot simply withhold payment pending litigation. For the 184 planning applicants in this week's register, many of whom will engage contractors for their approved works, this judgment is a practical reminder: construction contracts are enforceable, and the courts will not wait for the underlying dispute to be resolved before ordering payment.

Rural Housing and the Planning System: A Persistent Tension The High Court's refusal to grant a certificate to appeal in Phelan Walsh v An Coimisiún Pleanála ([2026] IEHC 177, Nolan J.) — concerning a refused planning permission for a dwelling at Woodpark Farmhouse, Lusk, County Dublin — is directly relevant to the planning data. Of the 49 residential units proposed in the week of 24–30 March, the majority were one-off rural houses, many in counties like Donegal, Meath, and Galway. The planning system's treatment of rural housing applications is contested: An Coimisiún Pleanála's refusal in Phelan Walsh was upheld on the basis that the applicant had not demonstrated the "demonstrable economic or social need" required under rural housing policy. For the dozens of rural applicants in this week's register, that standard remains the key hurdle. Watch for whether the Planning and Development Act 2024 changes the calculus.

Heritage Conversion: A Small but Meaningful Signal Two applications in the week of 24–30 March stand out for their approach to housing supply: the proposed conversion of Mulligans Shop (a protected structure, CV0590) in Shercock, Cavan (application 2660146) into 7 apartments, and the proposed garage at The Rectory (protected structure CT69) in Carlow (application 2660088). These are not large schemes, but they represent a growing trend: the reuse of protected commercial and institutional buildings for residential purposes. The Mulligans Shop application — a two-storey former shop and storage building being converted to 7 apartments — is exactly the kind of town-centre densification that planning policy encourages. If approved, it would add 7 units to Shercock's housing stock without consuming greenfield land. The question is whether An Coimisiún Pleanála's approach to protected structures will facilitate or frustrate such conversions.

  Commuter Belt Pressure: Meath Leads the Planning Register
  Meath County Council received 22 planning applications in the week of 24–30 March — more than any other authority, and more than double the national average per county. The applications ranged from single-storey dwellings in Moynalty and Trim to a notable commercial application: the change of use of Dunboyne Train Station (A86 HK07) from a disused public ticket hall to private offices (application 2660353). Meath's dominance of the planning register reflects the county's position as the primary commuter belt destination for Dublin workers: with a Q1 2026 median price of €357,388 — €95,000 below Dublin's median — Meath offers meaningful affordability for buyers willing to accept a longer commute. The Dunboyne station application is a particularly telling signal: a disused public transport facility being repurposed for private commercial use suggests that the station's public function has been superseded by the M3 motorway and remote working.

The Radar: Three Signals Worth Watching

Rural Dereliction Remediation Accelerating Multiple applications in the week of 24–30 March involved the demolition of derelict dwellings and replacement with new builds — including applications in Donegal (2660522, Lacklom, Ballintra: demolition of derelict house and erection of replacement) and Roscommon (2660137, Doon, Boyle: refurbishment of derelict dwelling and conversion of granary to living accommodation). This pattern — derelict rural properties being remediated rather than greenfield sites being developed — is consistent with the Croí Céime scheme and the Vacant Property Refurbishment Grant. The planning data suggests uptake is real, not just policy aspiration. Watch for whether the volume of dereliction remediation applications increases through Q2 2026 as grant funding flows.

Mortgage Enforcement Continuing: Pepper Finance Active on Dublin Properties The High Court's dismissal of an injunction in O'Callaghan v Pepper Finance Corporation (Ireland) DAC ([2026] IEHC 189, Kennedy J.) — involving properties at Spencer Dock and Castleknock — confirms that non-bank lenders are continuing to enforce on legacy mortgage arrears. The loan originated with Bank of Scotland Ireland and was transferred through multiple securitisation vehicles before reaching Pepper Finance. The court found that the plaintiff had delayed too long in challenging the transfer and that damages would be an adequate remedy. For the Dublin property market, where Q1 2026 registered 1,629 transactions at a median of €452,398, the continued enforcement of legacy arrears by non-bank lenders is a source of supply — but also of distress. Watch for whether the volume of receivership sales in Dublin increases through 2026.

ESB Infrastructure Planning: Digital Economy Footprint Expanding ESB Telecoms Ltd filed an application with Cavan County Council (2660145) for a standby generator at its telecommunications compound at Lakeview, Gallows Hill, Tullymongan Upper, Cavan — a facility that supports critical digital infrastructure. This is a small application, but it is part of a broader pattern: ESB and other infrastructure operators are investing in backup power capacity across rural Ireland as data centre demand and remote working increase the criticality of rural connectivity. The planning register is a leading indicator of infrastructure investment, and the presence of ESB Telecoms in the Cavan register — alongside residential and commercial applications — is a reminder that the digital economy's physical footprint extends well beyond the M50. Watch for further ESB and telecoms infrastructure applications as the National Broadband Plan reaches completion.

The Deep Dive: Cavan's 11-Unit Scheme & The Commuter Belt Story

This month's deep dive focuses on one development that stands apart from the week's planning register: the 11-unit residential scheme at Swellan Lower, Cavan town. In a week where 184 planning applications yielded just 49 residential units — and most of those were one-off rural houses — this single scheme accounts for 22% of all proposed units. It is a small development by national standards, but in the context of a rural town planning register dominated by individual house applications, it is a meaningful signal of what scaled housing delivery looks like outside the major cities.

Swellan Lower, Cavan Town — The Week's Most Significant Housing Scheme

Application 2660141, received by Cavan County Council on 26 March 2026, proposes 11 fully serviced dwellings at Swellan Lower, Cavan town: one 2-bed detached bungalow, four 2-bed semi-detached bungalows, and six two-storey 3-bed semi-detached dwellings. The total floor area is 911.9 sq m across a 0.402-hectare site — a density of approximately 27 units per hectare, which is at the lower end of the range recommended under the National Planning Framework for rural towns. The application is accompanied by a Natura Impact Statement (NIS), indicating that the site is in proximity to a designated habitat or Natura 2000 site — a requirement that adds complexity and cost to the planning process but also signals that the developer has engaged seriously with the environmental constraints.

Metric	Detail	Signal
Application number	2660141	New application
Planning authority	Cavan County Council	Rural town
Total units proposed	11 dwellings	Largest scheme this week
Unit mix	1 detached bungalow, 4 semi-detached bungalows, 6 two-storey semi-detached	Family-oriented
Total floor area	911.9 sq m	Avg 82.9 sq m per unit
Site area	0.402 hectares	~27 units/ha density
Environmental requirement	Natura Impact Statement required	Adds complexity
Decision due	May 2026	8-week determination

  Reading Between the Lines: Why Cavan Matters
  Cavan town sits at the intersection of several housing market pressures. It is within commuting distance of Dublin (approximately 1.5 hours on the N3/M3 corridor), making it a destination for buyers priced out of the capital and the established commuter belt counties. The Q1 2026 data does not include a specific Cavan county breakdown, but the national median of €331,217 suggests that Cavan properties — typically priced well below the Dublin median of €452,398 — represent genuine value for buyers willing to accept a longer commute or remote working arrangements. The 11-unit scheme at Swellan Lower is not a large development, but it is the kind of incremental supply that rural towns need: family-sized homes, connected to public services, in an established town centre location. The Natura Impact Statement requirement is a reminder that even modest rural developments face environmental scrutiny — and that the planning process for such schemes is not straightforward.

The question for Q2 2026: will Cavan County Council grant permission within the standard 8-week determination period, or will the Natura Impact Statement trigger a request for further information that extends the timeline? If approved, this scheme would represent a meaningful addition to Cavan town's housing stock — and a template for similar small-scale developments across rural Ireland.

Key People This Period

Name	Role	Notable Activity	Connections
Simons J.	High Court Judge	Delivered [2026] IEHC 195 — enforced €119k construction contract adjudication against property company	Construction Contracts Act 2013; Gael Property Investments
Nolan J.	High Court Judge	Refused certificate to appeal in [2026] IEHC 177 — upheld rural housing planning refusal at Lusk, Co. Dublin	An Coimisiún Pleanála; Fingal County Council; rural housing policy
Kennedy J.	High Court Judge	Dismissed mortgage injunction in [2026] IEHC 189 — Pepper Finance enforcing on Spencer Dock and Castleknock properties	Pepper Finance Corporation; Bank of Scotland Ireland; Dublin property market
Humphreys J.	High Court Judge	Delivered [2026] IEHC 175 and [2026] IEHC 174 — planning judicial reviews involving An Coimisiún Pleanála	An Coimisiún Pleanála; planning judicial review
Tom Coughlan	Developer	Competing for Cork events centre with Marina Market proposal (4,000–5,000-seat venue)	Cork events centre; Cork City Council; Cork property market

One to Watch: The Dunboyne Station Conversion

Dunboyne Train Station — Application 2660353

Meath County Council | A86 HK07 | Application type: Permission | Status: Pre-validation | Decision due: May 2026

Detail	Value
Development address	Dunboyne Train Station, Larchfield, Dunboyne, Co. Meath
Proposed use	Private offices, meeting rooms and staff facilities
Existing use	Disused public ticket hall, ticket office and staff facilities
Site area	0.033 hectares (small footprint)
Residential units	None — commercial conversion only
Eircode	A86 HK07

What it is: A planning application to convert the disused public ticket hall and staff facilities at Dunboyne Train Station into private offices and meeting rooms. The station building itself is not being demolished — it is being repurposed from a public transport function to a private commercial one.

Why it matters: Dunboyne is one of the most significant commuter rail stations in the greater Dublin area, serving the M3 Parkway line that connects Dublin Connolly to Dunboyne and Pace. The fact that the public ticket hall is now described as "disused" — and that a planning application has been filed to convert it to private offices — raises questions about the future of the station's public function. Is this a temporary measure, or does it signal a longer-term shift in how the station operates? The Meath County Council planning register for this week shows 22 applications in total, reflecting the county's position as the primary commuter belt destination for Dublin workers. A median price of €357,388 in Q1 2026 — €95,000 below Dublin's median — continues to attract buyers willing to commute. The conversion of a public transport facility to private commercial use, if approved, would be a notable signal about the changing economics of commuter rail in Ireland.

The number that matters: €95,000 — the price gap between Meath's Q1 2026 median (€357,388) and Dublin's (€452,398). This is the premium that buyers are paying to avoid the Dunboyne commute. If remote working continues to reduce commuter demand, the economics of the M3 Parkway line — and the viability of its station buildings — will come under increasing pressure. Watch for whether Meath County Council grants permission for the Dunboyne station conversion, and whether similar applications follow at other commuter rail stations.

The Broader Picture

The Irish Courts

March 2026 produced 48 High Court judgments, of which five had direct relevance to the property and construction sectors. The month was notable for the concentration of planning judicial reviews — three separate cases involving An Coimisiún Pleanála were decided in a single week — and for a significant construction contract enforcement decision that will be closely watched by developers and contractors alike. The courts are, in effect, setting the rules of engagement for the next phase of the property cycle.

Citation	Parties	Subject	Why It Matters
[2026] IEHC 195	BMC Renovation v Gael Property Investments	Construction contract enforcement	€119k adjudication enforced; pay now argue later confirmed for corporate respondents
[2026] IEHC 177	Phelan Walsh v An Coimisiún Pleanála	Rural housing planning refusal	Certificate to appeal refused; demonstrable need standard upheld for rural dwellings
[2026] IEHC 189	O'Callaghan v Pepper Finance Corporation	Mortgage receivership injunction	Injunction dismissed; Pepper enforcing on Spencer Dock and Castleknock properties
[2026] IEHC 175	Moss v An Coimisiún Pleanála (No.2)	Planning judicial review	Humphreys J. — ongoing scrutiny of planning commission decision-making
[2026] IEHC 174	Hoctor v An Coimisiún Pleanála (No.2)	Planning judicial review	Humphreys J. — second in series; pattern of judicial oversight of planning decisions

Legal Signal: Three Planning Judicial Reviews in One Week The concentration of planning judicial reviews in the week of 24–30 March 2026 — Phelan Walsh, Moss, and Hoctor, all involving An Coimisiún Pleanála — is not coincidental. It reflects the volume of planning decisions being challenged in the courts as the new planning commission (which replaced An Bord Pleanála in 2024) beds in. The courts are being asked to define the boundaries of the commission's discretion, particularly in rural housing and development plan cases. For developers and planning applicants, this judicial activity means that the planning system remains contested terrain: a decision from An Coimisiún Pleanála is not necessarily the end of the process. Watch for whether the Planning and Development Act 2024 reduces or increases the volume of judicial review applications in 2026.

Property Markets & Plans

The Q1 2026 property market registered 5,685 transactions nationally at a median of €331,217 — a market that is accelerating in both volume and price as spring demand builds. The planning register for 24–30 March shows 184 applications across 20+ authorities, with just 49 residential units proposed. The gap between market demand and planning supply is structural, not cyclical: at the current rate of planning activity, the pipeline cannot keep pace with a market where prices rose 11.2% in a single quarter.

Application / Transaction	Location	Type	Significance
2660141 — 11 dwellings, Swellan Lower	Cavan town	New residential estate	Largest scheme in the period; Natura Impact Statement required
2660146 — 7 apartments, Mulligans Shop	Shercock, Co. Cavan	Protected structure conversion	Town-centre densification; heritage building repurposed for housing
2660353 — Dunboyne Train Station offices	Dunboyne, Co. Meath (A86 HK07)	Commercial adaptive reuse	Disused public transport facility converted to private offices
SD21A/0255/EP — 2 dwellings, Firhouse	Dublin 24 (D24 E5FT)	Extension of permission	Permission lapsing — developer seeking more time to build
2660521 — Commercial workshop, Greencastle Pier	Greencastle, Co. Donegal	Commercial new build	Maritime industry investment; ancillary to existing premises

Property Signal: The Extension of Duration Trend The application SD21A/0255/EP at Firhouse, Dublin 24 — seeking an extension of duration for a permission to build 2 three-storey dwellings — is a small but telling data point. Extensions of duration (where a developer asks for more time to build before a planning permission lapses) are a leading indicator of construction pipeline stress: they suggest that permissions are being granted but not built out within the standard 5-year window. In a market where Dublin's median price is €452,398 and rising, the failure to build out existing permissions is a supply-side failure with real consequences for affordability. Watch for whether the volume of extension of duration applications increases through 2026 as permissions granted in 2021–2022 approach their expiry dates.

The Week Ahead

The Irish property market in Q1 2026 presents a clear and uncomfortable picture: demand is accelerating, prices are rising, and the planning system is producing supply at a rate that cannot keep pace. The national median of €331,217 — up from approximately €320,000 in Q4 2025 — represents a 3.5% quarterly increase that, if sustained, would imply annual price growth of 14%. Dublin's median of €452,398 is now 37% above the national figure, a structural premium that reflects not just demand but the failure of supply to respond. The planning register for 24–30 March — 184 applications, 49 units — is a weekly snapshot of a system that is not designed to deliver housing at scale. The single largest scheme in the period was 11 units in Cavan town. That is the supply response to a market registering 2,149 transactions in a single month.

  The Bottom Line
  The Irish property market is in a spring surge that is structural, not seasonal: prices and volumes are rising together, the planning pipeline is thin, and the courts are actively contesting the rules of the planning system. The ECB's predicted rate increase in June 2026 — reported by the Business Post — is the single biggest external risk to this trajectory. A rate rise would increase mortgage costs for the 2,149 buyers who registered transactions in March, and for the tens of thousands who will follow in Q2. The market can absorb a quarter-point rise. It is less clear that it can absorb a sustained tightening cycle on top of a supply deficit that is measured in tens of thousands of units.

What to Watch in Q2 2026:

Will the Cavan County Council decision on application 2660141 (11 units, Swellan Lower) set a precedent for rural town housing delivery, or will the Natura Impact Statement trigger delays?
Will the ECB rate decision in June 2026 dampen transaction volumes in Q2, or will spring demand prove resilient?
Will the volume of planning judicial reviews against An Coimisiún Pleanála increase as the new planning commission's decisions are tested in court?