Articles & Analysis
Week of 2026-W09
Business Post Weekly Intelligence Briefing
Week of 26 February – 4 March 2026: Deals, Distress & Disruption Across Irish Business
Source: ARTICLES | Period: 2026-02-26 to 2026-03-04
War, Wealth & the Week That Tested Irish Business: Iran Conflict Rattles Aviation, AIB Eyes Europe's Top Spot, and Avolon Raises $1.9bn
The week of 26 February to 4 March 2026 will be remembered as the moment geopolitics moved from background noise to front-page business risk. A US-Israeli military campaign against Iran closed Middle East airspace, sent oil above $85 a barrel, and put Ireland's $300 billion aircraft leasing sector on high alert — all while Avolon was completing a landmark $1.9 billion fundraising. On the domestic front, AIB declared ambitions to become Europe's best bank, Cairn Homes reported surging investor demand, and Ireland's auto-enrolment pension scheme enrolled 763,000 workers in its first four weeks. The Business Post published 196 articles this week — a volume that reflects the extraordinary breadth of stories competing for attention.
By the Numbers
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| AIB after-tax profit 2025 | €2.1bn | Record high |
| Cairn Homes 2026 revenue forecast | €1.05–1.08bn | Growth |
| Avolon new unsecured facilities YTD | $1.9bn | Diversifying |
| Novo Nordisk Athlone investment | €432m | FDI win |
| Kerry Group revenue 2025 | €6.76bn | Down from €6.9bn |
| Irish unemployment rate February 2026 | 4.6% | Stable |
| Corporate tax receipts YTD 2026 | Down YoY | Structural concern |
| McDonald's Ireland investment (5yr) | €150m | 25 new restaurants |
The Investigation: Five Themes That Defined the Week
This week's Business Post coverage broke into five distinct storylines: the Iran war's cascading impact on Irish business; a banking sector in strategic motion; a housing market finding new momentum; pharma and tech FDI continuing to flow; and a domestic policy agenda pushing ahead regardless. The volume of coverage — 196 articles — was driven by three reporters above all others: Matthew Joyce (46 articles, breaking news and geopolitics), Oisín Gaffey (40 articles, markets and tech), and Vish Gain (30 articles, companies and markets).
Top Stories by Theme
| Theme | Lead Story | Key Entity | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics & Aviation | Iran war damages Irish aviation firms | Avolon, Ryanair | High risk |
| M&A & Deals | AIB to aggressively pursue M&A | AIB, Goodbody | Expansion |
| Housing & Property | Cairn Homes investor demand surge | Cairn Homes | 5-yr high demand |
| FDI & Pharma | Novo Nordisk €432m Athlone | Novo Nordisk, IDA Ireland | FDI win |
| Fiscal & Policy | Corporate tax falls YoY | Dept of Finance | Structural concern |
| Tech & AI | Intel 18A Ireland decision | Intel, Kevin O'Buckley | Watch |
| People Moves | Greenman Investments new CEO | Greenman, Neil O'Keefe | Leadership change |
| Legal | Greg Kavanagh firm in court | Close Line, Elderwood | Dispute |
Financial Performance: Key Irish Companies This Week
| Company | Key Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIB | After-tax profit 2025 | €2.1bn | Return on tangible equity 25%; target 20%+ in 2026 |
| Bank of Ireland | Income target 2028 | €4.75bn | Excess capital €530m; M&A door open |
| Cairn Homes | 2026 revenue forecast | €1.05–1.08bn | Operating profit forecast €180–185m; PRS demand at 5-yr high |
| Kerry Group | Revenue 2025 | €6.76bn | Down from €6.9bn; profit €659m (from €673m) |
| Origin Enterprises | Group operating profit | €17.4m | Up 2.4%; market cap €478.7m |
| Glanbia | CFO retention bonus | €368k | No performance metrics; proxy advisers opposed |
| Greenman Investments | Portfolio value | €1.3bn+ | Supermarkets, renewables, agriculture in Germany/Poland/France |
The Connections: What the Official Record Reveals
Business Post coverage this week told compelling stories. But cross-referencing those stories against CRO records, court judgments, and property data reveals a richer picture — one where Irish companies are more deeply embedded in global risk than the headlines suggest, where banking ambition is constrained by structural gaps, and where a property developer's legal troubles point to a broader pattern of deal-making under pressure.
The Radar: Three Signals Worth Watching
The Deep Dive: Cairn Homes and AIB Under the Microscope
Two companies dominated Irish business coverage this week in ways that reward closer examination. Cairn Homes reported preliminary 2025 results that show a housebuilder firing on all cylinders — but with one eye on the Middle East. AIB posted record profits and declared European ambitions — but the gap between aspiration and execution is wider than the headline numbers suggest. We examine both in detail.
Cairn Homes — Ireland's Housebuilder Riding a Five-Year Demand High
Cairn Homes is Ireland's largest listed housebuilder, operating across Dublin and the greater Leinster region. CEO Michael Stanley reported preliminary 2025 results this week showing strong financial performance, a surge in investor demand from US-based private rental sector (PRS) operators, and a new joint venture with Tommy Kelly's CastleGate for a 2,000-unit project in Cork. The company is forecasting revenue of €1.05–1.08 billion and operating profit of €180–185 million for 2026.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €~950m (est.) | €1.05–1.08bn | +10–14% |
| Operating profit | €~165m (est.) | €180–185m | +9–12% |
| Build cost inflation | 1% | Monitored | Below industry 2% |
| PRS investor demand | 5-year high | — | Government incentives driving |
| Share price (4 Mar) | €2.35 | — | +4.21% on results day |
The question for 2026 accounts: can Cairn sustain its cost discipline advantage — 1% build cost inflation versus the industry's 2% — if the Iran conflict drives sustained commodity price increases?
AIB — Record Profits, European Ambitions, and the Wealth Management Gap
AIB reported after-tax profits of over €2.1 billion for 2025 — a return on tangible equity of 25%, well above its 20%+ target for 2026. CEO Colin Hunt declared he wants AIB to become the "best bank in Europe" — a statement that prompted analysts to ask pointed questions about the wealth management gap versus peers. AIB is targeting "roll-up" acquisitions of smaller wealth management firms to grow Goodbody and AIB Life, with any deal needing to meet a 20%+ return on equity threshold.
| Metric | 2025 Actual | 2026 Target | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| After-tax profit | €2.1bn+ | €2bn+ | Record |
| Return on tangible equity | 25% | 20%+ | Above target |
| CEO base salary | Highest in Ireland | — | Increased |
| Mortgage market share | Growing | — | Expanding |
| Wealth management AUM | Below BoI | — | Gap vs peers |
The question for 2026: will AIB's M&A strategy in wealth management deliver a deal that meaningfully closes the gap with Bank of Ireland, or will the 20%+ return threshold prove too restrictive in a competitive market?
Key People This Period
| Name | Role | Notable Activity | Connections |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Hunt | CEO, AIB | Declared ambition to make AIB Europe's best bank; highest-paid bank CEO in Ireland | AIB, Goodbody, AIB Life |
| Myles O'Grady | CEO, Bank of Ireland | Left door open to M&A; €530m excess capital; targeting €4.75bn income by 2028 | Bank of Ireland |
| Michael Stanley | CEO, Cairn Homes | 2025 results; JV with Tommy Kelly's CastleGate; €1.05–1.08bn revenue forecast 2026 | Cairn Homes, CastleGate |
| Edmond Scanlon | CEO, Kerry Group | Received 24,748 shares worth €1.75m; revenue €6.76bn 2025 (down from €6.9bn) | Kerry Group |
| Sean Coyle | CEO, Origin Enterprises | Received 121,473 shares worth €518,689; group operating profit up 2.4% to €17.4m | Origin Enterprises |
| Neil O'Keefe | CEO (incoming), Greenman Investments | Appointed to succeed co-founder John Wilkinson; €1.3bn portfolio across Europe | Greenman Investments, Apex Group |
| Greg Kavanagh | Property developer | Firm Close Line accused of stringing along sellers of €1.8m Meath site; court proceedings | Close Line, Elderwood Construction |
| Joseph Heneghan | CEO, Revolut Ireland | Met Tanaiste Simon Harris; discussed financial fraud and digital economy strategy | Revolut, Irish government |
One to Watch: Greenman Investments
Greenman Investments
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Portfolio value | €1.3bn+ |
| Asset classes | Supermarkets, renewables, agriculture |
| Markets | Germany, Poland, France |
| New CEO | Neil O'Keefe (from Apex Group) |
| Outgoing co-founder | John Wilkinson (remains exec director) |
Greenman Investments is a Dublin-based alternative investment fund manager with a €1.3 billion portfolio spanning supermarkets, renewable energy infrastructure, and agriculture across Germany, Poland, and France. The company is at the forefront of two major European investment trends: opening core real estate and infrastructure assets to retail investors, and onshoring European capital into European infrastructure.
Why it matters: the appointment of Neil O'Keefe — previously global head of legal at Apex Group — as CEO signals a professionalisation of the firm's governance as it scales. Co-founder John Wilkinson remains as executive director, providing continuity. In a week dominated by Irish companies navigating geopolitical risk, Greenman's European-focused, non-Gulf portfolio looks relatively insulated. The number that matters: €1.3 billion in assets managed from a Dublin base, with no direct Middle East exposure — a quiet strength in a volatile week.
Watch for Greenman's next fundraising round, which will test whether retail investor appetite for European infrastructure remains strong as interest rates stabilise.
The Broader Picture: Courts, Property & the Week Ahead
The Irish Courts
The High Court delivered eight judgments in the period 26 February to 4 March 2026, with one case of significant business relevance: the refusal of a stay application by X Internet Unlimited Company (the platform formerly known as Twitter) against Comisiún na Meán, Ireland's media regulator. The case is Ireland's first major test of the EU's Digital Services Act enforcement architecture, and the court's refusal to grant a stay signals that Irish courts will not lightly obstruct regulatory action under the DSA. For businesses operating digital platforms from Ireland, this is a landmark ruling.
| Citation | Parties | Subject | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| [2026] IEHC 127 | X Internet Unlimited Company v Comisiún na Meán | Digital Services Act — stay application refused | First major DSA enforcement challenge in Ireland; sets precedent for platform regulation |
| [2026] IEHC 124 | Verbenagrove Limited v Evans and Anor | Commercial property dispute | High Court commercial property litigation; Simons J. |
| [2026] IEHC 132 | Burke v O'Longain and Ors | Civil litigation | High Court civil case; Cregan J. |
| [2026] IEHC 103 | St Brigid's RFC v St Laurence O'Toole Diocesan Trust | Property/trust dispute | Sports club vs diocesan trust; Kennedy J. |
Property Markets & Plans
Dublin's commercial property market showed continued investor appetite this week, with two notable transactions reported by the Business Post. A prime Baggot Street building sold for €1.35 million at a 6.4% net initial yield, while a 22-unit Georgian aparthotel on Gardiner Street Upper launched at €5.25 million. The Wilton Park development in Dublin 2 — home to LinkedIn, Stripe, and EY — secured Perpetua Fitness as its latest occupier, reflecting the trend of developers integrating wellness and lifestyle services into commercial schemes. Dublin property data shows 1,014 transactions recorded year-to-date in 2026, with an average price of €557,965 and a median of €460,000.
| Property | Price / Guide | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baggot Street, Dublin 2 | €1.35m | Commercial (restaurant + offices) | 6.4% net initial yield; Tula restaurant anchor tenant; private Irish investor |
| 38–39 Gardiner Street Upper, Dublin 1 | €5.25m | Aparthotel (22 units) | Georgian protected structure; serviced apartments; Colliers sale |
| Wilton Park, Dublin 2 | Undisclosed | Commercial lease | Perpetua Fitness; Iput Real Estate development; LinkedIn/Stripe/EY co-tenants |
| Larry Goodman farm vs BP solar, Louth | €60m project | Planning appeal | Braganstown Farm challenges Lightsource BP 238-acre solar farm; An Bord Pleanála appeal |
The Week Ahead
The dominant theme of the week just passed — the Iran conflict and its cascading effects on Irish business — will not resolve quickly. Oil prices, aviation disruption, and market volatility are likely to persist into the coming weeks. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned markets may take weeks to fully digest the conflict's implications. For Irish businesses, the immediate priorities are: managing fuel cost exposure, monitoring Gulf airline customer health, and watching for any escalation that closes the Strait of Hormuz to LNG shipments (Qatar Energy has already declared force majeure).
On the domestic front, the March corporate tax figures will be closely watched after February's year-on-year decline. The Critical Infrastructure Bill will advance through the Oireachtas. And AIB's wealth management M&A strategy will move from rhetoric to deal-hunting — watch for any announcement in the coming weeks.
The auto-enrolment pension scheme's investment committee — led by Eugene O'Callaghan and Frank O'Riordan — will begin making its first strategic decisions about where 763,000 workers' savings are invested. That is a story that will define Irish capital markets for a generation.
What to Watch: (1) March corporate tax receipts — the real test of whether the February decline is structural or seasonal. (2) Avolon's next quarterly update — any guidance on Gulf airline customer exposure will be closely read. (3) The first DSA enforcement action by Comisiún na Meán following the X court ruling — this will define Ireland's role as Europe's digital regulator.